Theoretical Mechanics of Judgment Training in Aviation: Using Set Theory and Probability Statements in Instructional Design

Abstract

Aeronautical Decision Making (ADM) in student pilots has been governed by Advisory Circular 60- 22 since 1991, and theoretically supported by studies conducted in the 1980s. What has been missing in
some of these studies is direct access to the nature of judgment within decision-making. Judgment has always been the by-product of decision-making, not the chief focus. This essay concentrated on the
response type and headwork portions of the ADM process, the first four steps of Jensen’s (1995) detailed decision model, and the rational judgment portion of the Theory of Signal Detectability (TSD) (Jensen,
1995). Venn diagrams were used to express a new concept known as tensional meaningfulness and to express in theoretical terms how phenomena within the Venn diagrams related to each other. Orasanu’s
(1993) three types of decisions provided the backdrop for these Venn visualizations. These theoretical relationships were then translated into practical guidance for instruction in the classroom, instruction in
the simulator, and testing strategies.