The Relationship between Part 121 Pilots’ Age and Accident Rates

Abstract

This ex post facto study examined the relationship between Part 121 pilots’ age and accident rate per 1000 flight hours using data from Aviation Safety Information Analysis and Sharing(ASIAS) for the 14-year period 1998–2011. Of the 970 aviation events reported, 267 met our definition of an accident, which followed the FAA’s definition but also included a more restrictive requirement that the accident had to be related to pilot error. Of the 267 aviation accidents, 97 (36%) had missing age or flight hours data, which reduced the sample size to N = 170. Regression analyses confirmed neither a significant bivariate linear relationship, r2 = .007, F(1, 35) = 0.26, p = .6127, nor a quadratic relationship, R2 = .102, F (2, 34) = 1.93, p = .1601,between pilot age and accident rate. Furthermore, although the increment in explained variance (sr2) between the linear and quadratic models was .095, this increment was not significant, F(1, 35) = 3.687, p = .0630. Findings indicate that pilot age was not a significant predictor of aviation accident rates with respect to accidents that involved pilot error. A recommendation for practice is for the FAA to reconsider the age restriction for Part 121 pilots, and for the NTSB to strive for data completeness and integrity by ensuring that all the data are collected and included in their investigation reports.