Private Pilot Incidents by Pilot Age and Recentness of Medical Certification

Abstract

The link between recentness of medical certification and increased likelihood of involvement in an NTSB incident has been previously reported (Morris, 2016). This study investigated this phenomena across pilot ages. Age groups were fit to an exponential-linear decay model using the least squares method of best fit. Standard errors were reported in order to verify quality of fit. Individual best fit lines were graphed and shown for demographic groups. Best fit lines from across groups were then compared. This study verified the relationship between recent third class medical certification and increased likelihood of being involved in incidents for all age demographics. The study also showed that younger pilots have a marked initial increase in risk when compared to their older counterparts. It also showed that as pilots age, the relationship between recent medical certification and increased risk was significantly reduced in strength but still was very present.