Two “parties” among registered Oklahoma Democrats: The Clark, Edwards and Kerry constituencies

Abstract

This research is based on a sample of 807 registered Democrats who voted in the 2004 presidential primary. It seeks an answer to the question of why Oklahoma was unique in the "third round" of the nomination process in putting two candidates ahead of national front runner Senator John Kerry. The data suggest one reason is that many registered Democrats do not identify with the Democratic Party in Oklahoma. Instead, they identify themselves as independents through strong Republicans despite still being registered as Democrats. While Kerry won most of the strongest Democratic identifiers, he lost support among the lighter shades of blues as well as among independents and plums. So one reason Oklahoma put two candidates ahead of the front runner is that registered Democrats, especially conservative Democrats, prefer to vote their individual preference rather than for the Democrat seen as most likely to win the presidency.