Predicting Oklahoma state legislative races with Ockham's razor

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Stephen Baldrige
Emily Berry
Chris Hill
Charm Hoen
Jasmine Johnson
Gary Jones


Predicting elections accurately has long been a useful exercise. For scholars, prospective prediction is a test of their understanding of electoral dynamics. For candidates and activists, prospective prediction helps efficient resource allocation. For the public and the media, prospective prediction helps in following and understanding campaigns (see Lewis-Beck and Rice, 1984; Jones, 1999).

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