Bayesian Inference and Aviation Safety Quantifying the Negative Effects of Organisational Decision Making on Accident Probability

Abstract

Organisational failure is at the root of many aircraft accidents. Organisational decision making infects individual decision making. Based on data retrieved from the Australian Transport Safety Bureau, and concentrating on a specific geographic area of general aviation operations in the far north of the State of Queensland, this paper examines how organisational failures can dramatically increase accident probability under certain conditions. Using Bayes' theorem, we seek to quantify the effects, and to consequently help to improve the safety of general aviation operations, particularly in remote areas.