Predicting a Consumer’s Willingness to Fly with COVID-19 Passport Domestic and International Models

Abstract

COVID-19 has created a problematic situation for the aviation industry. As vaccines are developed and deployed, more individuals will be vaccinated. A COVID-19 passport has been proposed to ensure those flying into different areas will not increase the risk of spread. Method: This study used a multi-model analysis to develop two regression equations to determine predictive factors for a consumer’s willingness to fly with a COVID-19 passport, domestically or internationally. Participants answered demographics, universal emotions, perceived COVID-19 threat, personality traits, pre-pandemic flight habits, and their willingness to obtain the COVID-19 vaccine. A two-stage approach was used to conduct the data analysis. Results: Stage 1 found Gender, Willingness to receive the COVID-19 vaccine, Perceived COVID Threat, Anger, Disgust, and Happiness to be significant factors for domestic travel, accounting for approximately 32% of the variance. For international travel, Gender, Age, Willingness to receive the COVID-19 vaccine, Perceived COVID Threat, Anger, Disgust, Happiness, Surprise, and Republicans were significant factors accounting for approximately 25% of the variance. Stage 2 validated the regression equation through a t-test, Pearson’s correlation, and cross-validated R2. Conclusion: These factors will aid government agencies, the International Air Transportation Association (IATA), and the aviation industry's marketing departments to deploy a COVID-19 Passport.